Professor David Hackett Fisher

Professor David Hackett Fisher in The Great Wave, Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History writes that for the last eight hundred years, periods of economic and social stability have been intermittently interrupted by waves of rising prices.

Each of these great waves according to Professor Fisher culminated in the economic and societal collapse of the existing order, bringing to an end the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Age of Enlightenment, etc.

During each great wave: …Food and fuel led the upward movement. Manufactured goods and services lagged behind. These patterns indicated that the prime mover was excess aggregate demand, generated by an acceleration of population growth, or by rising living standards, or both.

… Prices went higher, and became increasingly unstable. They began to surge and decline in movements of increasing volatility. Severe price-shocks were felt in commodity movements. The money supply was alternately expanded and contracted.

Financial markets became unstable. Government spending grew faster than revenue, and public debt increased at a rapid rate…Wages, which had at first kept up with prices, now lagged behind.

Returns to labor declined while returns to land and capital increased. The rich grew richer. Inequalities of wealth and income increased. So did hunger, homelessness, crime, violence, drink, drugs, and family disruption.

..Finally, the great wave crested and broke with shattering force in a cultural crisis that included demographic contraction, economic collapse, political revolution, international war and social violence – pp. 237-238, David Hackett Fisher, The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History, Oxford University Press, 1996

Great waves take 80 to160 years before they end in the eventual decline and collapse of existing epochs. Today, another great wave is about to crest and break; and the changes could be even more extreme as the amplitude of change is greater than in any previous wave.

The current great wave began in 1896. That it could crest and break in 2012 could be a coincidence. Or, it may not.

Civilian Participation Rate Annual Numbers

Briefly I use the July 1999 economy because federal spending was at 18.2% of the GDP, today it is 25.3%, and the civilian participation rate peaked at 67.9%, today it is at a 28 year low of 63.8%. Simply put this 1999 economic performance is not some fantasy, it has been achieved and could be duplicated with effective federal government management team that understood the proper role of limited government.

The media is reporting jobs added but the BLS reports a loss of jobs.

Employed workers dropped in December from 141,070,000 to 140,681,000 or a loss of 389,000 workers. Using the “1999” criteria workers with jobs would number 151,394,000. Using this data it is apparent there are approximately 10,713,000 American who would prefer to work but are not due to extremely poor macroeconomic policies.

Doing the math the “1999” unemployment rate is 11.2%. this is pretty close to a estimate by Zero Hedge that was 11.4%.